BREAKING: Despite Elon Musk's Support, Far Right AFD Party Set To Come In Second Place In German Elections

Germany has shifted to the right, but not to the far-right. This is a loss for Elon Musk.

Breaking news out of Germany: According to preliminary exit polling, the far-right nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has received vocal support from Elon Musk, is projected to finish in second place in the German elections. The party is trailing the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) by nearly ten points, marking a significant political shift but falling short of the outright victory that some of its international supporters had hoped for.

The result is a setback not only for the AfD but also for figures such as Elon Musk and U.S. Senator J.D. Vance, who had openly expressed hope that the nationalist party would emerge victorious. Their endorsement reflects the broader internationalization of right-wing populist movements, with ideological alliances forming across borders. However, while Germany has clearly moved to the right in this election, its political establishment remains resolute in preventing the far-right from entering the halls of power—at least for now.

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The AFD has made significant gains in the election, surging by more than 9%, a dramatic shift that underscores the growing influence of nationalist and populist sentiment in the country. However, despite this surge, the AfD remains politically isolated. Germany’s mainstream parties, including the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), as well as the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), have firmly reiterated their commitment to a "firewall" strategy—refusing to form a coalition with the ultra-nationalist AfD. As a result, despite its electoral success, the AfD is effectively barred from participating in government and will remain on the sidelines of German policymaking.

Meanwhile, the SPD, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has suffered a historic defeat, securing only around 16% of the vote—its worst performance ever. This stark decline signals widespread voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent government. In contrast, the CDU/CSU, under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, has emerged as the dominant political force. With Scholz and the SPD relegated to third place, Merz is now the frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor. However, his path to power is not straightforward. He will need to negotiate coalition agreements with other parties—excluding the AfD—to form a governing majority. Given the fragmented nature of the German political landscape, these coalition talks could be complex and protracted.

Though the official election results will be confirmed tomorrow, exit polls in Germany are historically reliable and provide a clear indication of the likely outcome. The broader takeaway from this election is that while Germany has undeniably shifted to the right, it has not yet embraced the far-right in a way that would grant the AfD real governing power. The party's continued exclusion from coalition politics highlights the resilience of Germany’s political establishment in maintaining a centrist firewall against extremism—at least for now.