February 5, 2024 - Daily Digest

A major week for Trump's legal future

Today is February 5, 2024, and here are the critical stories that you may have missed from today. If you enjoy this content and want access to more, exclusive content or to support my work, then consider becoming a monthly subscriber below:

1) Hamas Rejects Another Ceasefire Proposal

Today, Hamas has rejected yet another ceasefire proposal that was put forth by a coalition of international partners including Egypt and Qatar. Israel had previously agreed to this same proposal which would have seen the release of over 100 innocent Israeli hostages currently in Hamas custody in exchange for a months long ceasefire and the release of several Palestinian prisoners currently serving time in Israeli prisons. The exact number of prisoners that would have been released under this proposal was not publicly known at the time of Hamas’ rejection. The deal would have also given additional time to allow aid into the Gaza Strip to help the civilian population that desperately needs it. Hamas claims to support is own citizens yet repeatedly rejects ceasefire deals that would help them.

2) What To Expect During A Major Week For Donald Trump's Legal Future

This is a major week for Donald Trump's current legal battles. There are three major cases that are pending where we will likely get some insight into the outcome. 

Trump v. Anderson

The first major case on the docket this week is Trump v. Anderson in front of the United States Supreme Court. This case arises out of the Colorado Supreme Court's 4-3 decision to remove Donald Trump from the Presidential ballot for violating the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause. The case prompted widespread commentary from members of both political parties and eventually led to an appeal that is now before the Supreme Court. 

This week, on Thursday February 8th, the Supreme Court will hear oral argument in the case. The primary issues the Court will decide are: (1) whether Donald Trump, as a presidential candidate, is subject to the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause and if so; (2) whether the courts or the legislature should be the ones deciding to remove a presidential candidate from the ballot. The decision in this case is expected sometime before June of this year during the height of the presidential general election season. Based on how the justices react during oral argument this week, however, we may have more insight into the ultimate outcome. More to come here. 

United States v. Trump

The D.C. Circuit is expected to release an opinion in Jack Smith's criminal prosecution of Donald Trump as soon as this week. The issue before the D.C. Circuit is whether Donald Trump is absolutely immune from criminal prosecution concerning his actions leading up to and on January 6, 2021. As a result of Trump's appeal, the current case in front of Judge Chutkan has been stayed indefinitely until the appellate process is resolved, and just last week, Judge Chutkan was forced to push the current March 4th trial date for Trump until after a decision is issued. 

Many legal experts expect the D.C. Circuit to rule against Trump, especially after a contentious oral argument last month saw Trump's attorney grilled by the judges over confines of his proposed presidential immunity, including whether a president would have immunity if he ordered seal team six to assassinate a political rival. No matter what the outcome is, expect the losing side to quickly appeal the decision to the United States Supreme Court which will likely hold oral argument, if it accepts the case, later this spring. 

New York Attorney General v. Trump

The final case that we expect news from is the New York Attorney General's civil fraud lawsuit against Donald Trump. Judge Engoron was expected to release a decision late last week, but has since postponed issuing his decision until likely this week. This case has already primarily been decided via summary judgment with Trump being held liable for several actions. The main issues left to decide deal with the possible disgorgement and other damages including possible permanent bans of Donald Trump and his associates from the real estate industry. Previously, the New York Attorney General argued that Trump should owe $370,000,000 in disgorgement, plus pre-judgment interest, for “ill-gotten gains through their unlawful conduct.” We expect a decision to come shortly, and will provide you with an update as soon as we have more information. 

3) Speaker Johnson Follows Donald Trump's Orders And Signals That Bipartisan Immigration Bill Will Fail In The House

Hours after the Senate released the framework for a bipartisan immigration bill that would also provide critical funding for Ukraine and Israel, Speaker Mike Johnson rejected the language in the bill stating that it is dead on arrival once it gets to the House of Representatives. 

The bill proposed by the Senate was negotiated in a bipartisan fashion with both Democrats and Republicans signaling their support. The bill also has the support of the White House. However, in recent weeks, the Republican Caucus in the House of Representatives has rebuffed any attempt to negotiate a immigration bill, instead following the orders of Donald Trump who has privately said that no bill should pass out of fear that it would give President Biden a win during an election year. 

The new Senate bill would, however, including many of the policy goals that House Republicans have sought to achieve. 

These goals include: (1) providing President Biden with the authority to restrict border crossings if the average migrant encounters reach 4,000 during a one-week span, which he said he will exercise immediately; (2) requiring the Department of Homeland Security to restrict border crossings if the number reaches 5,000 per week (3) raises the legal standard of proof to pass an initial asylum screening; (4) expediting proper asylum claims; and (5) providing a pathway to citizenship for several Afghan citizens paroled into the United States following the Administration's withdrawal of troops from the country. 

In addition, the bill would provide critical funding for Ukraine and Israel, along with additional humanitarian aid for allies overseas. This has long been a goal of many Republicans and Democrats in the Senate. House Republicans, however, have failed to thus far follow suit. As it stands right now, it appears as though Mike Johnson will obstruct any attempt to pass this critical legislation in the House.