It’s official: after a night of frantic negotiations and closed-door dealing, the Senate has passed a sweeping, controversial budget bill that slashes $930 billion from Medicaid and billions more from programs like SNAP. Vice President JD Vance cast the tie-breaking vote after a 50-50 split, cementing what could be one of the most consequential—and contentious—pieces of legislation in recent memory.
Three Republican Senators—Thom Tillis, Susan Collins, and Rand Paul—broke ranks with their party. Tillis and Collins objected to the deep cuts to healthcare and food assistance programs, while Paul, ever the libertarian purist, argued the bill didn't go far enough in reducing spending.
Despite those defections, Republican leadership managed to cobble together just enough support to ram the bill through, though not without shedding several provocative provisions along the way. Gone are measures that would have:
Blocked state-level regulation of artificial intelligence for the next decade
Eased the purchase of gun silencers nationwide
Made it harder to enforce contempt of court actions against the Trump Administration
These provisions, considered toxic even among some Republicans, were tossed overboard in an effort to shore up votes. But the heart of the bill remains: enormous cuts to the social safety net, framed by GOP leaders as a necessary step to rein in federal spending.
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Now, all eyes turn to the House of Representatives, where the path forward looks even murkier.
A Fractured GOP Faces the House Vote
The bill, while heralded by fiscal hawks, is deeply unpopular in national polling. Cuts to Medicaid—impacting millions of low-income Americans, elderly nursing home residents, and people with disabilities—have triggered alarm among moderate Republicans in swing districts. Many have already signaled they will not support the legislation in its current form.
On the other end of the spectrum, members of the House Freedom Caucus say the bill is not aggressive enough. For them, the compromise is too watered down, the cuts too cautious.
Caught in the middle is House Speaker Mike Johnson, who must now thread a political needle: appease the hardliners, retain moderates, and somehow meet the Trump Administration’s self-imposed July 4th deadline for passage.
What Was Promised to Murkowski?
One of the biggest unanswered questions of the night surrounds Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who voted in favor of the bill after being tight-lipped for weeks. While there’s no official record of what deals may have been made behind closed doors, Capitol insiders are already speculating that Murkowski secured state-specific carveouts or future political assurances. Her support was key to securing the 50-50 tie that Vice President Vance ultimately broke.
What Happens If the Bill Fails in the House?
If the bill fails to pass in the House, Republicans will face a brutal choice: go back to the drawing board and risk internal collapse, or double down and try to twist arms until a fragile majority materializes.
The Trump Administration, eager to declare a legislative victory ahead of Independence Day, has remained mostly silent—publicly, at least. But behind the scenes, pressure is mounting. This budget bill is not just about spending; it’s a political statement, a reflection of the priorities of the modern GOP. Failure to pass it would not only embarrass party leadership but could also fracture the coalition that brought Republicans back to power.
The Bigger Picture
This moment is about more than budget math. It’s about power, ideology, and the limits of political unity. The Senate has made its move. Now the House must decide: bend, break, or block.
One thing is certain—this fight isn’t over. Not even close.
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